Sonoma County Year 2000 Demographics and Projections

Prepared for the Sonoma County Area Agency on Aging

Jim Hughes, Intern, Sonoma State University May 2002 Sonoma County Year 2000 Demographics

Geography

Sonoma County is considered a rural/suburban county with a significant number of unincorporated and geographically isolated areas. Sonoma County covers over 1,600 square miles; the total population in 2000 was 459,258. Ranging in population from 6,831 (Cloverdale) to 147,595 (Santa Rosa), the County’s nine cities are Petaluma, Rohnert Park, Cotati, Sebastopol, Santa Rosa, Sonoma, Healdsburg, Cloverdale, and Windsor. The Russian River/West County Area includes the unincorporated city of Guerneville, as well as several other small, unincorporated communities. Many of these communities are geographically isolated from each other and operate very independently.

Sonoma County is located approximately forty miles north of San Francisco and is bordered by the County of Marin to the south, the County of Napa to the east, and the Counties of Mendocino and Lake to the north. The entire western portion of the County consists of Pacific Ocean coastline.

Given the mild climate, lower cost of living versus other Bay Area counties, the abundance of local activities and close proximity to San Francisco, Sonoma County has become a popular and active retirement community. According to the Press-Democrat, between 1980-1990, Sonoma County saw phenomenal growth in the Baby Boomer aged population, ranking fourth in the entire country. Currently, 32.5% of Sonoma County adults are aged 35-54. It attracts a higher concentration of retired seniors than any other Bay Area county. Currently, 21.3% of Sonoma County adults are age 55 or older. Sonoma County seniors are more personally active and involved within the community and government.[1]

Comparison of 1990 vs. 2000 Sonoma County Census, Age 60+

According to the current US Census Figures,[2] the total population of Sonoma County increased 18.3% (70,392 people) in the last decade. In comparison, the total population of the county 60 years of age and older increased 11.57% (7,724 people). A significant decrease, -6.28% (1,837 people), occurred in the most populated aged bracket (65 - 74.) Members of this age cohort, born during the Great Depression, may have moved out of the bay area due to changes in retirement status, or changes in the housing market.

Just as significant, however, is the increase in ages 75 – 84, 25.95% (4,600 people), and 85 +, 59.50% (3,079 people). This reflects the national trend that the 85 + age group is, and will continue to be, the fastest growing segment of the American population.

Sonoma County Population Comparison 1990 vs. 2000, Age 60+

Sonoma County Population Projection to the Year 2040 for 60+

According to the Californa Department of Finance Population Projections, [3] the most significant increase in Sonoma County’s population between 2000 and 2010 will be in the 60 and older age segments. While other age groups will increase by 10 to 17%, the 60 – 84 segment will increase by more than 44% and the 85+ segment will increase by more than 31%. The chart below indicates that the trend will continue for many generations.

Of the 60-year and older population segment, the greatest increase will occur with those 85+. By 2020, there will be approximately 3,000 more elders 85+ living in the county. In 2030, that number will increase by 5,550, and in 2040 by another 12,750. In 2040, the number of people 85 years and older will have increased by 254% compared to 2000, or 21,500 people.

Sonoma County Population Projection to the Year 2040

The following table and chart demonstrate the expected changes in the Sonoma County population in the next 40 years.

Sonoma County Population Projection Through 2040

Source: California Dept. of Finance

Projections in the Changes of Racial Demographics, 60 +

Compared to the total 60+ population, a 50% increase in the percentage of minority elders occurred between 1990 and 2000. By 2040, the white 60+ population will be approximately 2.5 times what it was in 1990, but the minority 60+ population will be almost 10 times what it was in 1990.

Source: California Dept. of Finance

Projections in the Changes of Racial Demographics, 85 +

The percentage of minorities to the total population in the 85+ age group will increase more gradually than that of 60+. However, by 2040, the white 85+ population will be approximately 5 times what it was in 1990, while the minority 85+ population will be almost 20 times what it was in 1990.

Source: California Dept. of Finance

Poverty

U.S. Census poverty data for Sonoma County will not be available until September 2002. If there are no changes in the percentages from the 1990 census:

• 5.2% of age 60 and over population (3,875 people) are living at poverty level
• 9.3% of age 60 and over population (6,925 people) are living at 125% of poverty level
• Also from the U.S. Census for 1990, 25.6% of people 60 and older (19, 063 people) live in rural areas of the County.

Summary of Trends

The most significant changes in Sonoma County’s population during the last ten years (1990-2000) occurred in the 75 years and older age bracket. Although the total population age 60 and older remained virtually stagnant during that time period, the population 75+ increased 33.5% (7,679 people.) – an increase equivalent to more people than live in the city of Cloverdale.

Compared to the total population of the County, which increased by 18%, the 75+ population increased 26% and the 85+ population increased 60%!

The California Department of Finance projections show the impact of the Baby Boomer generation, and indicate that Sonoma County will see a major increase in the numbers of senior citizens well into the latter part of the 21^st Century.

The Department of Finance also indicates that the proportion of white elders compared to minority elders will gradually decline. The 60+ white population will increase by approximately 2.5 times by 2040, but the minority 60+ population will increase almost 10 times what it was in 1990, comprising 6% of the 60+ population in 1990, to 21% in 2040.

The effects of this population increase will present major challenges to county services and facilities, particularly if the trend of reducing federal and state financial support continues.

Conclusion

The poverty rate of older people is much lower in this new millennium than was the case in the middle of the 20th century. Particular subgroups of the older population, such as women, minorities, oldest-old, rural residents, and individuals who live alone, however, have not shared equally in the overall rising affluence of the older population. A fresh vision of social policy is needed to address the realities of older people who are economically secure and who can make valuable contributions to society in paid work, volunteer, educational, and other productive roles, provided opportunities to do so are available to them. For those older people in contemporary America who are economically insecure, the more immediate concern of policy makers is to promote their economic well-being, but in doing so, the social integration of disadvantaged groups within our society can also be promoted.

How can we, as a nation, provide support for individuals and families in the second half of life without at the same time promoting dependency rather than independence? How can government programs work in partnership with families to promote social integration and well-being without constraining options and opportunities? As we move through the early 21^st century, these are the kinds of questions facing citizens in and out of government who are concerned with social integration in the second half of life. The dramatic growth in the aging population makes a concerted approach to research, intervention, and policy necessary.[4]

The Baby Boomer influence on area demographics is not just a fluke. We cannot expect the proportions of elders to the general population ever to return to “normal.” All projected demographics indicate that the number of elders will continue to grow for generations to come. Policies and practices established now and in the near future will affect all of us, no matter how many decades separate us from retirement.

We face a time of tremendous opportunities. The ongoing needs of elder generations will present endless situations for expanding volunteerism to levels we’ve never experienced. We will need to increase options for all elders including community-based services that enable people to remain in their homes with supportive aid; there will be a greater demand for home delivered meals, in-home care, adult day care and health care, and support services and respite for family caregivers.

Communities must expand housing options for seniors. Flexibility in the employment market will create jobs that not only benefit seniors, but also employers who can tap into the deep well of wisdom and experience that only comes with years. Medicaid waivers for residential care facilities will make secure housing options available for many seniors who do not need to live in skilled nursing facilities, but lack the finances to live elsewhere. The impact of the increased numbers of aging Americans may well overwhelm today’s health care and insurance industries. Providing transportation for the senior population will continue to present major challenges. Without resolutions to these issues, incidents of elder abuse are likely to become more frequent.

The challenges confronting county agencies in the face of an ever-increasing elder population are difficult but not insurmountable. Political activism by elder advocates has never been more important. Politicians and legislators must assume the responsibility of providing funds and structure for essential programs.

We’re all getting older, and we’re all going to need community support.

Jim Hughes
Intern, Sonoma State University
May 15, 2002

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